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australian open tennis

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#21 Bundy

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 05:27 PM

Tsonga now faces Djokovic.........tough as they come.

Murray sailed through without too much fuss, even though he didn't play that well. He now faces Chardy who he'll fancy his chances against


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#22 thefootygaffa

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 05:45 PM

Chardy actually beat Muzza last their last match 64 64 in Cincinnati Masters 1000 but don't worry about that as Murray "tanked" out of that match on purpose after his run at Wimby and then his gold in the summer he needed and took a rest before his Slam win at the US Open 2 weeks later. Chardy is really playing well and surprised me with his win over Del Potro, he's got a big serve and an aggressive forehand but Muzza will handle him ok. We are on course for the top 4 seeds battling it out in the semi finals! PS - it is actually Djoko against Birdman and Tsonga v Federer

#23 thefootygaffa

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 11:59 PM

Radwanska to beat Na Li tonight!



#24 thefootygaffa

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 01:39 AM

Radwanska getting torn a new one here.....dear dear



#25 Hoopz

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 01:45 AM

Who won first set?
Diehard Liberal , don't detest thon player detest thon game.

#26 thefootygaffa

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 01:45 AM

Li na 75



#27 thefootygaffa

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 01:46 AM

serving for the match now



#28 thefootygaffa

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 01:46 AM

its ladies tennis though, melt downs happen all the time



#29 thefootygaffa

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 01:52 AM

ba...games a bogey



#30 thefootygaffa

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 12:07 AM

No tennis bets tonight, reckon all the 1/4 finals will go with the favourites and the odds are rubbish.

 

Best wait for the semi's



#31 monte1545

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 06:09 AM

Fed/Murray semi.

 

Odds:

 

Murray -140    ,     Fed +132

 

O/U:  41.5       -114 / +103

 

Murray -2.5 Games (-105)

 

Length of match:  OVER 170.5 Minutes, -206



#32 monte1545

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 06:38 AM

Coin toss here, really.  You could rationalize plausible arguments for either side.   Live betting definitely yield better bets.

 

Still not sold on Murray's slam win at USO last year.   People look at Murray's win at the Olympics and the USO as a coming of age, but a further look questions the authenticity of such wins.  One might say a win is a win and those achievements stand by themselves as impressive.  And, o/c, they are impressive.  However, when the big four (Djok, Rafa, Fed, Murray) are all present in a slam, Murray is undoubtedly the odd man out. 

 

Murray definitively smashed Federer in the Olympics final, but this was after Fed had the emotionally/physically draining Wimbledon tourney win earlier.  And Fed came through the Olympics with emotionally taxing wins over Falla and Del Potro.  A complete letdown and non-performance was what Fed delivered in the final.   Credit to Murray for the win.  But that was one of the most absent finals by Federer ever.

 

As the 2012 ATP season carried on most players were taxed and overextended.  This could be seen in Djokovic quite easily and many other players.   Djokovic foolishly scheduled Canada and Cincinatti, followed by the USO.  O/c, at the end of a long season that was extended by the Olympics... this was poor for his health and conditioning.  He easily won Canada with an empty field.  In the Cincy tourney he faced Federer and got blasted 6-0 in the first set.   Fed played well but this 6-0 thrashing was due to Djokovic's body/health timing, which would later rear it's head in the USO.   Djokovic arrived to the USO final not on a full tank.  So Murray could take advantage of this and beat Djokovic in 5 sets.   Had Djokovic been fully healthy, Murray would not have beaten him.  

 

Also, as the legitimate #4 player in the world, Murray is always prone to not winning majors when facing a GS with Djok/Rafa/Fed in the brackets.    He has to beat one of them in the semis, then face another in the final.   When these guys are fully healthy, Murray is basically shit out of luck.  You can verify this by Djok/Rafa/Fed appearances in finals compared to Murray's appearances.  This is also why the BIG 3 have approximately 30 slams combined .... and Murray has 1 slam.

 

Anyways, Murray had the perfect storm to capitalize on a long season to gather his Olympic gold and first and only slam. 

 

The world of sports, and pretty much everything else out there, is based on the "what have you done for me lately" perspective.   This yields distorted views in pending, immediate matchups.  Fans, punters, whoever will judge the last game or match of a player or team and immediately drape that performance over the next game/matchup.

 

In this case I am referring to the Fed/Tsonga matchup.  The world views the Murray/Fed matchup (and, consequently, it's Murray tilted pricing) through the eyes of the Tsonga match.   "Fed looked like shit" and etc, etc.   This happens in NFL all too frequently.

 

A historical perspective has seen Federer come into specific spots and deliver an absolutely crisp performance.   Federer's semi match in Wimbledon vs. Djokovic was ridiculously crisp and Fed was honed in.  If a honed in Fed like that were to show up, Murray would be toast.   But I don't think that will happen. 

 

One thing I strongly believe is that if Murray makes the final, he will not beat Djokovic. 



#33 monte1545

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 06:41 AM

If had to make just one wager for this match, it would be the following:

 

Length of match:  OVER 170.5 Minutes, -206



#34 monte1545

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 12:58 PM

4 hour match.  5 sets. 

 

Fed up a break in the 4th but couldn't hold his serve so as to give him gas for the 5th, thus having to win the set twice by winning the tiebreaker.

 

Really, Murray outplayed him the whole match.  The only chance for Fed would have been to close out that 4th set with his serve.   After he lost it, the match was eternally lost.  Murray was too good.

 

Stepping back for a moment and not being too influenced by this match, it's hard to see Fed winning another Grand Slam.  



#35 thefootygaffa

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 08:34 AM

Taking Azarenka in the women's final

#36 thefootygaffa

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 11:26 AM

BooooooooooM

#37 Bundy

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 11:38 AM

Stepping back for a moment and not being too influenced by this match, it's hard to see Fed winning another Grand Slam.  

 

 

Depends on the luck of the draw. Still a great player on grass and I wouldn't bet against him winning at Wimbledon again


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#38 black dog

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 11:40 AM

Taking Azarenka in the women's final

 

Yep, she done the biz....can't be arsed wi that whine every time she hits the baw but I must say she has a fantastic upper torso moreso the front.....biggrin.png


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#39 thefootygaffa

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 11:43 AM

Yep, she done the biz....can't be arsed wi that whine every time she hits the baw but I must say she has a fantastic upper torso moreso the front.....:D


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#40 monte1545

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 09:29 PM

Good call on Azarenka.  That man is just too big for the women's game right now.

 

Bundy, you are correct.  I think I was more caught up in the moment.   Djokovic had a cakewalk draw to get to the finals.  If Fed had the same draw, he'd be in the final and refreshed.   

 

 

Looks pretty clear to me that Murray will lose in the final. 

 

Djok -190 and -4 are what's available.

 

Would take the -4 instead of the -190.   Djoker in 4 sets maximum.







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